Market Adoption Risk Assessment

Know if your idea will fail
before you waste €10,000–€50,000 building, launching, and trying to grow it.

Run a market adoption risk assessment in under 60 seconds. See failure probability, capital at risk before traction, and what structurally blocks adoption — before you write a line of code.

Run your first analysis free See a sample report

No account  ·  Under 60 seconds  ·  No credit card

Market Physics Engine - Simulate startup adoption friction before you build anything | Product Hunt Featured on Product Hunt
What this tells you before you build
Failure probability
How likely your idea fails to gain traction in a real market before significant capital is spent
Capital at risk
What you stand to lose before first real users arrive — mapped to your adoption timeline
Time to initial adoption
When majority adoption arrives — and how long you need to fund the gap until then
What will block growth
The single structural barrier killing your idea right now and the one change that removes it
Do not build
Trust barrier prevents early adoption. 60% of buyers reject at evaluation regardless of price. Regulatory friction delays operational readiness by 2–3 cycles.
Capital at risk before traction: €22,000 – €45,000
The problem with current methods

Most ideas fail after launch.
Most founders find out too late.

The cost is not a failed idea. The cost is building it, hiring for it, and spending money on it first.

How founders currently validate
Surveys and interviews — people say they would use it. They do not. Stated intent and real behavior are not the same thing.
Landing page tests — measure curiosity, not adoption. Does not simulate resistance from regulators, risk officers, or existing incumbents.
Intuition and founder conviction — systematically overestimates early adoption and underestimates structural friction.
Building an MVP — the most expensive form of validation. You only find out the market rejects it after spending the money.
What a risk assessment adds
Failure probability before capital is committed — know the likelihood of rejection before you build or hire.
Identifies structural blockers — trust deficits, regulatory gatekeepers, and cognitive complexity that surveys and landing pages never capture.
Capital at risk quantified — how much you stand to lose before traction arrives, mapped to your adoption timeline.
One specific intervention — the single change that moves the needle most. Not a list of improvements. One thing.
What the assessment measures

Four outputs.
All tied to money and decisions.

Not metrics to interpret. Answers to act on.

Adoption Risk Score
Is your idea in buildable territory — or structurally rejected before launch?

Scored 0 to 1.5. Benchmarked against Airbnb, Uber, Stripe, and Slack at equivalent stages. Tells you whether your capital is well-placed or heading toward a market that will not move. Avoid building ideas that score below 0.35 without structural changes.

Capital at Risk Before Traction
How much will you spend before you find out you are wrong?

Pre-traction capital exposure mapped to adoption timeline. If majority adoption arrives at Period 9, you need nine market cycles of runway before revenue justifies the build. Identify failure before you spend the money, not after.

Primary Failure Drivers
Which structural barrier is killing your idea right now?

Trust deficit, cognitive complexity, or regulatory friction — ranked by dominance. The highest scorer is your real problem. Everything else is noise until you fix it. Reduce the cost of bad decisions by identifying failure drivers before building.

Time to Initial Adoption
When does majority adoption arrive — and what does the gap cost?

Each period maps to a real market cycle. Late majority — Period 8 or beyond — means extended burn before revenue. Know your runway requirement before you commit to building.

The decision

Three verdicts.
All of them specific.

Every analysis ends with one of these. Not a number to interpret. A decision with a reason and a capital consequence.

Build
Strong signal. Your capital is well-placed.

Friction is manageable. Market timing is right. A clear path to majority adoption exists. Proceed with confidence.

Build with changes
Viable — but one barrier will kill it.

The idea works in principle. One structural friction driver must be resolved before launch or adoption stalls at 15–30%. The report tells you exactly which one and what to change.

Capital at risk without change: significant
Do not build
Structural rejection. Save your capital now.

Multiple blockers make adoption unlikely without fundamental redesign. The report tells you exactly what is wrong and what a viable version of this idea looks like.

Capital at risk if you proceed: €20,000–€60,000+
Sample output

Structured like a risk assessment.
Not a simulation printout.

The report reads like a credit risk document because it serves the same purpose: what will fail, why, and what it costs — before you commit capital.

Market Physics Engine  •  Adoption Risk Assessment
SolarShare — P2P Energy Marketplace
Medium Risk
Adoption Risk Score
0.52
Scalable with friction resolved
Simulated Adoption
79.8%
At market period 12
Time to Traction
Period 6
Majority at ~6 market cycles
Capital at Risk
Pre–P6
Revenue delayed ~6 cycles
Primary Failure Driver — 40% of adoption friction
Trust deficit — unknown counterparties, unverified transactions
Homeowners will not sell electricity to unknown neighbours without a vetted transaction layer. Until trust infrastructure exists, the platform stalls at approximately 25% adoption regardless of pricing or product quality.
Trust fix
Publish verified buyer profiles with transaction history before launch. Reduces trust friction by 1.5 points. Adoption moves to 81%.
Regulatory fix
Obtain grid operator approval for the pilot city. Removes the compliance-unknown signal blocking regulator and investor personas.
Complexity fix
Show live meter output before sign-up. Users need to see the system working before committing. Lowers cognitive barrier by one point.
MPE  •  Run ID: s9x2k4  •  Not financial advice
Verdict: Build with changes
How it works

Four steps.
Under 60 seconds.

No surveys. No interviews. No waiting. Paste your pitch and get a risk assessment immediately.

01

Describe your idea

Two to five sentences. What it does, who it is for, how it makes money. No deck required.

02

We simulate how the market reacts

Every role that influences real adoption is evaluated — consumer, buyer, regulator, investor, risk officer — each scored against your specific context.

03

We identify what blocks adoption

The system finds where your idea stalls, which stakeholder rejects it first, and the structural reason why. Ranked by impact on capital at risk.

04

You get a clear decision

Build, build with changes, or do not build — with failure probability, capital at risk, and one specific intervention to improve the outcome.

Example: a failing idea

This idea looks fundable.
It will consume €40,000 before failing.

The most expensive mistakes are the ideas that almost work. Here is how the assessment identifies the specific mechanism that kills them.

Pitch submitted

"A B2B SaaS platform that automates compliance reporting for mid-market financial firms. Integrates with existing accounting software. Subscription at €499 per month per firm."

Adoption Risk Score
0.38
Risk tier
High
Adoption chance
62.4%
Time to traction
Period 9
The risk officer kills this before it reaches procurement.

Three independent blockers. Structural. None fixable with better marketing or lower pricing.

Regulatory friction is extreme (8.4 / 10)

Financial compliance tools require certification before enterprise deployment. Every legal team blocks purchase until third-party validation exists — regardless of product quality or pricing.

Risk officer is a hard blocker (9.2 / 10)

At €499 per month the purchase requires sign-off from someone whose job is to prevent exactly this kind of third-party data access. Will not convert without a complete security audit trail.

Integration complexity delays traction to Period 9

Accounting software integrations require IT involvement, procurement cycles, and security review at every prospect. Nine market cycles of burn before revenue arrives.

Do not build

Non-viable at current scope. Consider a narrower entry: single compliance module, single regulation, single jurisdiction. Re-run the assessment with that pitch before committing any capital.

Capital at risk if you proceed at current scope: €20,000 – €60,000 before finding out
The obvious question

Why trust a simulation
over real market feedback?

Three objections every serious founder raises. All of them reasonable.

"Synthetic agents are not real people."
Real market research has the same limitation — just more expensively.

User interviews capture stated intent, not behavior. Focus groups produce socially acceptable answers. This system is calibrated against real diffusion patterns from Airbnb, Uber, Stripe, and Slack. The model is wrong in known, documented ways. Survey data is wrong in unknown ways.

"The AI is just generating plausible-sounding numbers."
The numbers are deterministic math. The language is AI. They are two separate layers.

Your adoption score, failure drivers, and time-to-traction are computed by a mathematical model. The AI only translates those numbers into plain language. Change the AI and the numbers do not change. That is the architecture.

"I can figure this out by talking to customers."
You can. It costs three months and €15,000 in founder time.

Customer discovery is essential. Running this first means you enter those conversations knowing which barrier matters most and what to probe for. You have sharper conversations, not fewer. Use both — in the right order.

Important: This system does not predict revenue or guarantee success. It identifies whether an idea can overcome real-world adoption resistance before capital is committed. That is a different — and earlier — question than whether it will succeed.
Pricing

Priced against the cost
of a wrong build decision.

A bad decision costs €30,000 to €100,000 in runway. The question is not whether €29 is worth it.

Free — No account required
Test the concept
Run three analyses. See if this changes how you think about your idea.
€0
3 analyses per month
YesFull risk assessment and adoption signal
YesFailure driver breakdown
YesBenchmark comparison
—PDF report download
—Strategic intervention layer
—Scenario modeling
Start free — no card
Pro — For founders
Avoid building the wrong idea
Identify failure before you spend money. Run scenarios before you commit.
€29
per month  ·  cancel anytime
Yes50 analyses per month
YesFull PDF risk report — shareable with investors
YesStrategic intervention layer — ranked actions with quantified adoption impact
YesScenario modeling — test what happens if you reduce trust friction, regulatory exposure, or complexity
YesRun history — track how your idea changes as you iterate
YesBuild / Build with changes / Do not build on every run
Get Pro — €29 per month
Team — For institutions
Evaluate ideas before capital is deployed
Standardized risk scoring across opportunities. Comparable outputs across teams. Decision-ready reports.
€99
per month  ·  portfolio-ready
YesUnlimited analyses
YesCredit Assessment PDF — bank-ready risk report with risk tier, conservative scenario, and full structural risk analysis designed for investment and credit files
YesComplete audit trail — all deterministic score inputs for compliance and investment committee review
YesEverything in Pro
SoonAPI access for portfolio workflow integration
Get Team — €99 per month
For banks, investors, and evaluation committees

Team accounts include a bank-ready Adoption Risk Assessment PDF designed to sit alongside financial projections in a due diligence pack. It contains risk tier classification, adoption probability, time to revenue inflection, conservative scenario analysis, structural risk assessment across four categories, and a complete audit trail of all deterministic score inputs. The scoring methodology does not rely on AI-generated ratings — all quantitative outputs are computed through deterministic mathematical transformation.

Not running this assessment
is itself a financial decision.

If your idea fails after you build it, you will have spent €10,000 to €50,000 — often much more — to find out what this tool would have told you in 60 seconds.

Run your first analysis free

No account  ·  Under 60 seconds  ·  No credit card